As bets on US exceptionalism cools, JPMorgan questions whether it has gone too far
Investing.com -- The outperformance in U.S. stocks relative to their international peers has been an omnipresent theme across market, but just as investors are giving U.S. stocks the cold shoulder, JPMorgan questions whether this the unwind of the U.S. exceptionalism theme has gone too far.
"There are some aspects of the unwind of the US exceptionalism theme that look extended, such as the longs by momentum-based investors in the HSCEI and SX5E indices," analysts from JPMorgan said in a note.
The momentum signal for the the Hang Seng China Enterprises , or HSCEI, has moved from close to neutral at the turn of the year to well above the 1.5 standard deviations threshold that "we typically see as signalling a higher risk of triggering mean reversion signals," they added.
Similarly, JPMorgan said the momentum in favor of Eurostoxx 50, or SX5E, has gathered steam and is at around +1.1 standard deviations after the latest tariff threats prompted a sell-off on Feb. 19, they said.
On the positioning front, the analysts said the shift in Euro area and Chinese equities now looks more marked, but there has been little further unwind in US vs. Euro area govies or US tech vs. non-tech.
For the dollar and US vs. rest of the world equity fund flows more broadly, the reversal remains rather modest, JPMorgan added.