Investing.com -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA )'s stock, which has seen a 25% decrease over the past month, is still showing a 21% rise since the Presidential election, according to Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. Munster suggests that the recent downturn is largely due to investors adjusting their delivery expectations for 2025.

The change in expectations, Munster explains, is due to Tesla CEO Elon Musk's increased political visibility, which has reportedly put off potential buyers. This effect is beginning to appear in vehicle registration numbers in Europe. In January, Tesla's European sales fell 45% year-over-year, and the company's share of new car registrations dropped to 1% from 1.8% during the same period in the previous year.

Currently, Wall Street predicts 2 million deliveries for Tesla this year. However, the industry's whisper number, or unofficial and unpublished forecast, is now closer to 1.7 million. If this lower figure holds, it would mean a year-over-year decline of 4% for Tesla, a stark contrast from the current official expectation of a 12% increase.

Munster believes that Tesla's stock is unlikely to hit bottom until the official forecast numbers align more closely with the lower whisper numbers. Despite the current downturn, Munster remains optimistic about Tesla's future. He suggests that these adjustments could set the stage for a stronger 2026, as the contribution from Tesla's lower-cost model, which Musk has hinted could launch in the first half of 2025, begins to be felt.

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