February 24, 2025

Oil prices subdued with Ukraine peace deal prospects in focus

Investing.com - Oil prices were muted in European trading on Monday, as traders eyed ongoing discussions over a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine and an anticipated uptick in supply from Iraq.

The conflict in Ukraine, which has led to sanctions placed on Russian oil exports, has now entered its fourth year. Negotiations between Moscow and the U.S. over halting the fighting kicked off last week in Saudi Arabia, albeit without Ukrainian leaders or their European allies in attendance.

Representatives from the U.S. and Russia are set to meet for further talks this week, Reuters has reported, citing a senior Russian diplomat.

Meanwhile, European Union officials are due to meet for an extraordinary summit on March 6 on the Ukraine conflict, with leaders tipped to discuss further measures to support Kyiv and bolster their own security. Recent statements by the Trump administration and its approach to the talks with Russia have rattled European leaders, casting doubt over whether the region can depend on the U.S. as a defense backstop.

For oil markets, traders are attempting to gauge if an end to the war will mean the lifting of restrictions on Russian oil. Although the sanctions have weighed on seaborne supplies, their removal may not necessarily lead to an uptick in global supplies because Russia -- a member of the OPEC+ producer group -- has already held back some output.

Still, analysts have flagged that heightened geopolitical tensions, along with other U.S. trade policy changes, could dent oil prices.

"Trade and tariff concerns, along with a push for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, will weigh somewhat on the market," ING analysts said in a note.

Elsewhere on Monday, analysts noted that an expected increase in supply from Iraq has pushed prices lower, although it was uncertain when flows through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline would resume. An Iraqi oil ministry official said on Sunday that the country will export 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan's oilfields through the pipeline once the shipments restart, Reuters reported.

Brent oil futures had risen by 0.1% to $74.11 per barrel as of 09:03 ET (14:03 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged up by 0.1% to $70.50 per barrel.

(Ayushman Ojha and Reuters contributed to this report.)

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