Goldman flags downside risks to oil price outlook amid planned OPEC+ output rise
Investing.com - Goldman Sachs has said it sees downside risks to its average forecast for oil prices in 2025 and 2026, citing the impact of potential OPEC+ output increases in April, softer U.S. economic data and an escalation in trade tensions.
The investment bank sees Brent crude averaging $78/$73 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude oil at roughly $74/$68 per barrel for 2025 and 2026.
But, the analysts said in a note to clients on Monday that the possible oil production bump by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia -- a group known as OPEC+ -- could be larger than anticipated.
The uptick in output would be the first since 2022 from OPEC+. Goldman said the move would come one quarter earlier than analysts had initially anticipated. The bank had earlier seen OPEC+ rolling out four months of production increases starting in July.
Should OPEC+’s production expansion stretch beyond their four-month base case, it could boost oil supplies above anticipated levels, the analysts added.
"Specifically, we estimate that Brent would drop to the low-to-mid $60s by end-2026 in a risk scenario where OPEC8+ supply rises for 18 months," they wrote.
At the same time, Goldman said there was some downside risk to its estimate for 1.1 million barrels per day of oil demand growth in 2025 because of President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, weaker economic data in the U.S., and a sluggish oil demand in China -- the world’s largest oil importer.
The comments come after OPEC+ announced on Monday plans to proceed with the planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day.
Oil prices fell Tuesday, hovering near three-month lows, as traders weighed the decision and Trump’s decission to allow levies on Canada, Mexico and China to come into effect.