March 5, 2025

Investors have become more worried about U.S. growth outlook - Goldman Sachs

Investing.com - Markets have become increasingly worried about the U.S. growth picture over the past two weeks following a string of disappointing data points and policy moves by the Trump administration, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Earlier this week, a metric tracking the U.S. manufacturing industry cooled, but remained just above the 50-point level denoting expansion. However, a separate gauge of factory gate prices surged to a three-year peak and new orders slumped, as firms expressed worries over an uncertain operating environment stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariffs plans.

The numbers were on the heels of tepid consumer spending, an uptick in the goods trade deficit and weak homebuilding in January -- all of which have raised concerns over possible sluggishness in the U.S. economy in the first quarter.

In a note to clients, the Goldman analysts said they had lowered their estimate for gross domestic product during the period to 1.6%, flagging particular uncertainties from Trump’s moves to slap levies on friends and adversaries alike as well as an Elon Musk-led push to downsize the size of the federal government.

These developments have created "fresh risks to growth," the analysts said.

Against this backdrop, the investment bank favored a more broad-based "portfolio" approach to investing, adding that while there are "more plausible" cases for upside in equities, "plenty of downside risks remain."

"We still see asymmetry to the downside in US yields and to the upside in gold. And we think the upside tail in the U.S. dollar remains underpriced and is still helpful protection against a deeper trade war," the analysts wrote.

"Trade policy deadlines, risks of a government shutdown, and any further softness in data could fuel further growth worry, though we could now see clearer relief if those tails are avoided."

Stocks will likely reverse course "more quickly" on better news around policy developments than yields, the analysts also predicted.

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