Oil prices rebound after losses; weak Chinese inflation, tariff jitters in focus
Investing.com -- Oil prices rose Monday, bouncing after recent hefty losses even as weak inflation data from top importer China kept traders on edge over slowing demand.
At 09:10 ET (13:10 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in May climbed 0.6% to $70.81 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.8% to $67.55 a barrel.
Crude prices had slumped to more than three-year lows last week amid a storm of negative factors, chiefly concerns over slowing demand and increasing supply. Signs of a cooling U.S. economy also weighed.
China inflation data underwhelms, spurs demand fears
Chinese consumer and producer inflation data, released over the weekend, showed a persistent deflationary trend in the world’s biggest oil importer.
The data showed that China’s economy was still struggling with weak local demand, which in turn bodes poorly for the country’s appetite for crude.
Additionally, "Chinese data on Friday showed that crude oil imports in the first two months of the year totalled 83.85m tonnes -- or around 10.4m b/d -- down 3.4% YoY and below the roughly 11.3m b/d imported in December," analysts at ING said, in a note.
The reading also underscored the need for more stimulus measures from Beijing, as the Chinese government moves to support the economy.
Beijing had last week vowed even more fiscal spending this year to shore up growth. But this sparked little cheer in oil markets, as government officials gave few details on the planned measures.
China is also set for economic headwinds from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, after he hiked duties on Chinese imports to 20% last week.
Trade tariffs, supply fears rattle oil prices
Trump’s broader tariff agenda has also been a point of uncertainty for oil markets, amid concerns that a renewed global trade war will decimate demand.
Markets are uncertain over Trump’s plans for more tariffs, after he last week imposed and then abruptly postponed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.
In an interview with Fox News over the weekend, Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a U.S. economic recession, while warning that the economy was in a transitory period as he embarked on his agenda.
But the U.S. President kept up his threats of more tariffs.
Trump has called on U.S. producers to increase domestic energy production, with lower energy costs expected to drive his agenda of softer inflation. Trump had also called on Saudi Arabia and its peers to increase production, with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) having increased production marginally last week.
Busy week ahead
It’s a relatively data-heavy week for the energy calendar.
On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration releases its latest Short Term Energy Outlook.
"It will include the EIA’s latest US oil and gas production forecasts and assessment of the global balance. In last month’s release, the EIA forecast US crude oil production would grow by around 380k b/d YoY in 2025 and 140k b/d YoY in 2026. Recent price weakness poses downside risks to these numbers." ING added.
OPEC’s monthly oil market report will be released Wednesday, followed by the IEA’s monthly oil market report on Thursday.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)