Macquarie sees potential short-term challenges for Chinese copper miners due to the possibility of U.S. tariffs on copper imports being implemented sooner than anticipated. According to a recent Bloomberg article, President Trump is considering the imposition of copper import tariffs in the coming weeks rather than months.

The U.S. President initiated a Section 232 investigation on February 25, requiring a report from the Secretary of Commerce within 270 days. The market’s original expectation was that the investigation would mirror the duration of prior ones on steel and aluminum, which lasted from April 2017 to March 2018.

However, Bloomberg suggests that the inquiry and subsequent decisions on copper tariffs might progress more rapidly. Macquarie analysts highlight that the imposition of tariffs in the near future could decelerate copper shipments to the U.S., potentially easing the tightness of the copper market outside the U.S. and exerting downward pressure on copper prices.

This development could pose a downside risk to short-term copper prices, as per Macquarie’s assessment. The report further outlines that the share prices of Chinese copper mining companies, which tend to follow copper prices closely, may face downward pressure.

Macquarie recommends that investors consider taking profits in the short term and look to accumulate at lower prices following a market correction. A sensitivity analysis conducted by Macquarie shows that with copper priced at $9,500 per ton and gold at $3,000 per ounce, Zijin’s estimated earnings for 2025 would be Rmb45.5 billion, translating to a 9.8x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025.

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