Investing.com - U.S. natural gas prices retreated Thursday, with warmer weather weighing on demand while traders continued to contemplate the potential for peace in Ukraine.

At 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT), natural gas prices fell 1.4% to $3.819 per million British thermal units, or MMBtu, over 5% lower over the course of the last week..

Weather forecasts through March 30 suggest temperatures across the northern U.S. will range from the 30s to 60s degrees Fahrenheit, while the southern tier will see milder highs in the 50s to 80s.

This indication of a warmer-than-average March is reinforcing the soft demand environment and weighing on fundamentals.

Additionally, recent CFTC data has revealed that professional speculators have slashed net long positions, suggesting a meaningful retreat in speculative confidence. The trend has been consistent over the past two weeks.

Away from the weather, traders are also wary about the potential for peace in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, potentially allowing Russian gas flows to return to the open market.

That said, ING sees several hurdles that will need to be overcome for this to become a reality, even if a permanent peace deal is agreed.

Europe has ambitions to end its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, particularly now Russia has raised concerns over whether it is a reliable energy supplier.

“It would be difficult to see leaders wanting to reverse this decision and increase its dependency significantly once again, leaving the region vulnerable,” ING added.

Also, while President Donald Trump is pushing hard to end the war in Ukraine, he may also be reluctant to push too hard for a restart in Russian flows to Europe.

“The U.S. has a significant amount of LNG capacity set to start up between now and the end of the decade. Export capacity is set to grow by 65%. A large part of this capacity is being built on the back of expectations that Europe will be there as a buyer,” ING added.