April 5, 2025

Cash App, Venmo — How much are they worth?

Investing.com -- Cash App and Venmo have cemented their positions as two of the dominant peer-to-peer (P2P) payment platforms in the U.S., but their growth has slowed in recent years, analysts at Bernstein highlighted in a note this week.

According to the firm’s analysts, "some key KPIs such as P2P volume and user growth, however, have somewhat plateaued recently."

Bernstein estimates Cash App, owned by Block, to be worth between $25 billion and $30 billion, while Venmo, owned by PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL ), is valued at $10 billion to $15 billion.

The analysts conducted a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, assigning "20x EV/Adj. OI multiples (including SBC as a cost) for Cash App" and "13x EV/GP multiple for Venmo."

Despite its strong monetization, Cash App faces questions about future growth. "Investors wonder where incremental growth will come from, and whether a bulk of the recent growth came from low-income lending," Bernstein noted.

The firm sees potential in initiatives such as Afterpay integration and increased marketing for paycheck deposits, which have remained stagnant at around 10% penetration.

Venmo, on the other hand, has struggled to capitalize on its first-mover advantage in P2P payments, according to Bernstein.

"Venmo monetization has had a series of false starts over the past several years," analysts wrote.

However, Bernstein sees upside if Venmo can execute under new management, particularly in debit card penetration and merchant payments. "Venmo targets of $2B+ revenue by ‘27 (ex-interest; low-teens CAGR) appear achievable on some low-hanging fruit."

Overall, Bernstein believes both Cash App and Venmo face challenges but remain valuable assets for Block and PayPal.

Bernstein’s analysis suggests "40-70% and 25% upside vs. current valuations" for Block and PayPal, respectively, offering a potential re-rating for both stocks.

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