April 15, 2025

Oil prices steady as market weighs IEA downgrade, U.S.-China trade war

Investing.com-- Oil prices held steady in Asian trading on Wednesday, extending their subdued run near four-year lows as investors weighed the impact of U.S. trade tariffs, while the International Energy Agency’s bleak demand forecast eroded sentiment.

As of 22:15 ET (02:15 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in June were muted at $64.62 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures inched down 0.1% to $60.62 per barrel.

Both contracts settled little changed in the last two sessions, remaining close to four-year lows hit last week.

Stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP data from China, coupled with a jump in March industrial production and retail sales, offered only limited support to oil prices.

IEA cuts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast

The International Energy Agency on Tuesday cut its forecasts for global oil demand growth to 730,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year from 1.03 million bpd, and to 690,000 bpd next year, citing escalating trade tensions.

“With arduous trade negotiations expected to take place during the coming 90-day reprieve on tariffs and possibly beyond, oil markets are in for a bumpy ride and considerable uncertainties hang over our forecasts for this year and next,” the IEA said in a statement.

The downgrade follows the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revising its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, reducing it by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.30 million bpd.

In its monthly report, OPEC also lowered its projections for global economic growth for both 2025 and 2026.

Trump tariff uncertainty leads to subdued moves

Investors grappled with persistent uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade policies, particularly the prospect of additional tariffs targeting electronics and pharmaceutical imports. The lack of clarity over the scope, timeline, and impact of the proposed measures weighed on risk appetite, prompting cautious trading across major equity indices.

President Trump on Monday indicated potential exemptions from the 25% tariffs on foreign vehicle imports, particularly from countries like Mexico and Canada.

This development eased some market concerns, but markets were cautious over growing US-China trade tensions.

China has been slapped with a cumulative 145% tariff, against which Beijing has retaliated with a 125% levy on U.S. goods.

China Q1 GDP beats estimates; March factory activity jumps

Data in the world’s largest oil importer China showed that the economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2025.

China’s GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year in the three months to March 3, above the average forecast of 5.2% growth.

Chinese industrial production surged 7.7% in March, beating expectations, as local producers front-loaded exports ahead of steep April 2 U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Retail sales also rose 5.9%, aided by Beijing’s stimulus measures targeting consumption.

However, prolonged US-Sino trade tensions could hurt demand and disrupt supply chains.

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